Dow Theory is a theory on stock price movements that provides the basis for technical analysis. The theory was derived from 255 Wall Street Journal editorials written by Dow. Following his death, William P. Hamilton, Charles Rhea, and E. George Schaefer organized and collectively represented “Dow theory” based on Dow’s editorials. Dow himself never used the term Dow Theory, though. The six basic tenets of Dow Theory, as summarized by Hamilton, Rhea, and Schaefer, are as follows:
1. Markets have three trends. To start with, Dow defined an uptrend (trend 1) as a time when successive rallies in a security price close at levels higher than those achieved in previous rallies and when lows occur at levels higher than previous lows. Downtrends (trend 2) occur when markets make lower lows and lower highs. It is this concept of Dow Theory that provides the basis of technical analysis definition of a price trend. Dow described what he saw as a recurring theme in the market: Prices would move sharply in one direction, recede briefly in the opposite direction, and then continue in their original direction (trend 3).
2. Trends have three phases. Dow Theory asserts that major market trends are composed of three phases: an accumulation phase, a public participation phase, and a distribution phase. The accumulation phase (phase 1) occurs when investors “in the know” are actively buying (selling) stock against the general opinion of the market. During this phase, the stock price does not change much because these investors are in the minority, absorbing (releasing) stock that the market at large is supplying (demanding). Eventually, the market catches on to these astute investors, and a rapid price change occurs (phase 2). This is when trend followers and other technically oriented investors participate. This phase continues until rampant speculation occurs. At this point, the astute investors begin to distribute their holdings to the market (phase 3).
3. The stock market discounts all news. Stock prices quickly incorporate new information as soon as it becomes available. Once news is released, stock prices will change to reflect this new information. On this point Dow Theory agrees with one of the premises of the efficient-market hypothesis.
4. Stock market averages must confirm each other. In Dow’s time, the United States was a growing industrial power. The United States had population centers, but factories were scattered throughout the country. Factories had to ship their goods to market, usually by rail. Dow’s first stock averages were an index of industrial (manufacturing) companies and rail companies. To Dow, a bull market in industrials could not occur unless the railway average rallied as well, usually first. The logic is simple to follow: If manufacturers’ profits are rising, it follows that they are producing more. If they produce more, then they have to ship more goods to consumers. Hence, if an investor is looking for signs of health in manufacturers, he or she should look at the performance of the companies that ship manufacturers’ output to market, the railroads. The two averages should be moving in the same direction. When the performance of the averages diverges, it is a warning that change is in the air.
5. Trends are confirmed by volume. Dow believed that volume confirmed price trends. When prices move on low volume, there could be many different explanations why. An overly aggressive seller could be present, for example. However, when price movements are accompanied by high volume, Dow believed that this represented the true market view. If many participants are active in a particular security, and the price moves significantly in one direction, Dow maintained that this was the direction in which the market anticipated continued movement. To him, it was a signal that a trend is developing.
6. Trends exist until definitive signals prove that they have ended. Dow also believed that trends existed despite market noise. Markets might move in the direction opposite the trend temporarily, but they soon will resume the prior move. The trend should be given the benefit of the doubt during these reversals. Determining whether a reversal is the start of a new trend or a temporary movement in the current trend is not easy. Dow theorists often disagree in this determination. Technical analysis tools attempt to clarify this, but they can be interpreted differently by different investors.
Source : Forex Wave Theory a Technical Analysis for Spot and Futures Currency Traders; Bickford, James L.; The McGraw-Hill Companies; 2007
Read more...
